Pakistan's Road to WTC Final: Assessing Chances Before Bangladesh Tests and Potential Blockbuster India Match

Pakistan is gearing up to kick off their home Test campaign in the ongoing World Test Championship (WTC) against Bangladesh in a two-match series starting on Wednesday. Captain Shan Masood, who faced a tough 0-3 defeat against Australia in his first series as the leader of the Pakistan Test team, emphasized the importance of winning the upcoming home series against Bangladesh and England to secure a spot in the WTC final for the first time.

"We have to look at our position in the World Test Championship. Yes, it was sixth and seventh before. Yes, we would like to obviously play the final this time. So if you want to play in the finals, we have to win our home Test matches. If we have to win that, we have to take 20 wickets consistently. And obviously, our batters should score enough and give the bowlers time to take those 20 wickets," he said at the pre-series presser in Rawalpindi on Tuesday.

Where do Pakistan stand in the WTC points table?

Pakistan finished fifth in the inaugural edition (2019/21) of the WTC and seventh in the following cycle (2021/23), where they had lost six of the 14 allotted Tests. In the ongoing edition (2023/25), they stand sixth in the table, with two wins in five matches so far, thus giving them a points percentage of 36.66%.

Pakistan's remaining matches in WTC 2023/25 cycle

- vs Bangladesh at home (2 matches)

- vs England at home (3 matches)

- vs South Africa, away (2 matches)

- vs West Indies at home (2 matches)

Can Pakistan make the WTC final next year?

The only result that could 100 per cent guarantee Pakistan a spot in the WTC final is a win in all the upcoming nine Tests. This would leave them with a percentage point of 77.38%, thus setting up a final against either one of India, Australia, New Zealand or Sri Lanka. But looking at their fixture, it could be nothing short of a miracle if they script a nine-match winning streak.

They might, in all likelihood, blank Bangladesh in the upcoming two-match series and West Indies in their final series at home. But their biggest challenge will be up against England, who defeated them 3-0 in the last face-off, and the tour of South Africa, where Pakistan were whitewashed in both their last two trips to the Rainbow Nation. This could only mean that Pakistan's fate could depend on other factors going their way.

What are the chances of India vs Pakistan WTC final?

The Rohit Sharma-led side remain the table-toppers in the ongoing WTC cycle and will likely retain the spot if they continue their home dominance to clean sweep Bangladesh (two-match series) and New Zealand (three-match series) over the next two months. Hence, irrespective of the result in the Border-Gavaskar series, which includes the possibility of a 0-5 humiliation, India could still make the final with 58.77 per cent.

For Pakistan to make it through to the final, they need India to pull off a historic 5-0 clean sweep Down Under, which has only ever happened once on Australian soil. But Masood and Co. will then have to tackle South Africa, Sri Lanka and New Zealand for the second spot in the WTC final. However, if India and Australia play a closely-contested series, Pakistan could be eliminated from the race to the final.

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